There seem to be two elements of revolutions that are always in conflict, the appeal of and hope for change and the fear of what comes next. It can be difficult, however, to identify when the appeal for revolution finally overtakes the fear of change. The fear of change, not of the institutional response to revolution, is ultimately the only element precluding revolution since the majority of individuals will not even consider revolution unless it seems inevitable. The question then becomes what causes individuals to choose revolution if they are so afraid of change and chaos?
Revolutions themselves are chaotic, but humans do not seek chaos. As stated by Kapuscinski: “if we find ourselves in such a situation (dramatic/chaotic) we look feverishly for a way out, we seek calm and, most often, the commonplace.” I would argue that those living under autocratic, dictatorial, or colonial rule (and maybe more specifically those who choose to engage in revolution) do not find their current state of being as calm and nondramatic. If anything living daily with the fear and uncertainty of being targeted by those in power is not a state of calm or commonplace living as described by Kapuscinski. This ultimately may manifest itself in a breaking though not always resulting to revolution. This breaking point, in certain cases and under the right circumstances, can lead to a unifying sentiment of change that results in revolution. This sentiment and choice to engage in such a rare collective action is what, ultimately, makes revolutions so fascinating especially given the intensity of this collective sentiment and in its quick disappearance.
I’m not convinced.
I agree that there is a fear of the afterward, of the “what comes next” moment. We’ve observed it in the readings on Iran. Where I disagree is in the statement that it is exclusively the fear of that moment of change, independent of the institutional response to revolution. Especially in considering life beyond an autocratic regime, or at the very least, under a new autocracy, I would argue that it is just as much that fear of institutional responses to revolution, especially like the violent responses we saw in Iran, that preclude a revolution. One cannot ignore the distinction in the social sciences between political power and authority. What keeps autocratic regimes in power for so long if not the fear of the consequences of dissent and revolt?